2026 → 2126 · SYSTEMS ENGINEERING SCENARIO

From planetary industry
to stellar infrastructure.

V2 turns the original concept into a coupled model: off-world supply chains, autonomous factories, staged solar orbits, radiator limits, collector degradation, laser diffraction, collision attrition, fusion-assisted industry, and optional Earth/Moon/Mars tether infrastructure.

Run v2See the technology path
Scenario explorer, not a forecast. Speculative branches are explicitly labeled.

V2 ARCHITECTURE

Six coupled systems.
One expanding network.

The swarm only grows when materials, manufacturing, power handling, transportation, orbital safety, and control capacity grow together. V2 makes each of those a constraint instead of assuming unlimited scaling.

01Resource webEarth launch · lunar ISRU · asteroid feedstock
02Orbital industryFactories replicate only when mass and output allow it
03Thermal envelopeRadiators can throttle collectors close to the Sun
04Photonic networkBeam capture comes from aperture, wavelength and range
05Intellect layerAutomation improves production, repair and traffic safety
06Tether logisticsLunar/cislunar, Earth and Mars branches activate independently

INTERACTIVE ENGINEERING MODEL

100-Year Swarm Simulator v2

Delivered power · 2126——
Active collectors——
Orbital factories——
Processed off-world mass——
Beam capture efficiency——
Thermal utilization——

Solar-system industrial network

Conceptual orbital-zone visualization driven by the current simulation.

2126 STATE

Power delivered to the civilization grid

Thermally usable solar generation × beam conversion × diffraction capture × pointing uptime

2026 → 2126

Industrial growth

Active collectors and orbital factories

Annual feedstock

Earth launch, lunar export and asteroid processing

Model milestones

Derived from the current run

Primary constraint · 2126

What is limiting the scenario most strongly?

Model note

—

DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY TREE

The path unlocks one dependency at a time.

Cards below use your current scenario. “Unlocked” means the model’s year/threshold condition was met—not that the technology is guaranteed to exist.

TETHER / ELEVATOR STRATEGY

Use the right tether for the right gravity well.

EARLIER BRANCH

Lunar + cislunar logistics

Low lunar gravity makes tether and mass-driver logistics substantially less demanding than an Earth elevator. V2 lets a mass driver and cislunar tether compound rather than forcing one choice.

GATED BRANCH

Earth space elevator

Earth elevator throughput activates only when both its deployment date is reached and the model’s tether-material readiness crosses 85%. This prevents the toggle from becoming free mass-to-orbit.

PLANETARY BRANCH

Mars elevator

Modeled as a multiplier on Mars logistics and receiving infrastructure, not as additional swarm feedstock. It strengthens the civilization network rather than creating material.

REFERENCE ROADMAP

Design for a century.
Validate every decade.

2026–2035

Prototype

Autonomous prospecting, surface power distribution, precision beaming, reusable launch and orbital assembly.

2036–2050

Moon-first industry

ISRU pilot plants, mass drivers, orbital yards, high-volume robotic construction and closed-loop repair.

2051–2075

Industrial replication

Factories reproduce major subsystems, asteroid streams mature, cislunar tether branches expand.

2076–2100

Inner swarm

Collectors migrate inward as thermal control, traffic management and laser apertures scale.

2101–2126

Civilization grid

Planetary relays, deep-space nodes and swarm-scale energy become an integrated infrastructure.

RESEARCH ANCHORS · VERIFIED 2026

Ground speculative architecture in real development work.

These links do not prove a Dyson swarm or full space elevator is imminent. They anchor individual enabling technologies already being investigated.

NASA — Space-Based Solar PowerWireless power transfer, autonomous systems, in-space assembly and manufacturing are relevant enabling capabilities. NASA TechPort — Laser Power Beaming ReceiversCurrent work identifies diffraction and low end-to-end efficiency as major power-beaming constraints. NASA TechPort — TYMPOActive tethered power/communications work for lunar mobility; an adjacent tether technology, not a lunar space elevator. NASA TechPort — ISRU-Based Power on the MoonAutonomous processing of lunar regolith into useful power-system materials is under active development. NASA NTRS — Space Elevator Critical TechnologiesEarth elevator feasibility remains dominated by ultra-high-strength tether materials and system-level challenges.