2026 → 2126 · CIVILIZATION-SCALE SYSTEMS MODEL

Build the industry.
Then build the swarm.

V3 models a civilization trying to bootstrap from Earth-launched industry into lunar and asteroid resource networks, self-expanding orbital factories, a photonic power grid, planetary settlements, optional tether/elevator logistics, and a coordinated AI “Intellect” layer.

Run v3Inspect dependencies
Scenario explorer, not a prediction. Speculative technologies remain gated and labeled.

V3 ARCHITECTURE

A swarm is the output of an industrial civilization.

V3 adds civilization mobilization, R&D readiness, settlement demand, expected failures, logistics fleets, resource-node inventories, infrastructure hubs, dynamic Intellect allocation, and year-by-year technology dependencies to the v2 physics model.

01Resource inventoriesEarth high-value launch · lunar regolith · carbonaceous and metallic asteroid feedstock
02Industrial hubsNamed orbital yards, foundries, depots and refinery nodes unlock from thresholds
03Intellect allocationMission doctrine shifts mass, R&D and delivered power between competing goals
04R&D readinessAutonomy, ISRU, thermal control, beaming, fusion, repair and tether materials mature over time
05ReliabilityExpected failures, collision attrition, redundancy and repair capacity constrain exponential growth
06Planetary demandEarth, Moon and Mars consume power before speculative engineering reserves are available
07Tether logisticsMass driver, cislunar tether, Earth elevator and Mars tether remain independent branches
08Stellar networkCollectors transition from 1 AU assembly to 0.5 AU and an inner target orbit

INTERACTIVE CIVILIZATION MODEL

100-Year Swarm Simulator v3

MISSION CLOCK

2126

Scrub the century to inspect any modeled year.
Delivered swarm power——
Active collectors——
Industrial factories——
Off-world material flow——
Intellect maturity——
System reliability——
Planetary surplus——
Century goal score——

Solar-system industrial network

Orbital zones, settlements, resource nodes and logistics links at the selected year.

2126 STATE

Power generation, demand and surplus

Delivered photonic power versus Earth + Moon + Mars modeled demand.

2026 → 2126

Industrial expansion

Collectors and factory nodes

Annual material sources

Earth launch, Moon, asteroid resources and elevator throughput

Technology readiness

R&D-dependent enabling systems

Settlements

Modeled supported population equivalents

Model milestones

Derived from this run

Primary constraint

Strongest modeled bottleneck at the selected year

Model note

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INFRASTRUCTURE LEDGER

Named hubs with real dependencies.

These are project-level scenario assets, not claims that such facilities currently exist. Each hub activates only after its prerequisite thresholds are reached.

RESOURCE LEDGER

Feedstock comes from different resource classes.

V3 tracks conceptual resource classes rather than pretending current observations give us certified industrial reserves.

INTELLECT COORDINATION LAYER

Allocation changes with the state of the system.

Current resource allocation

Current power allocation

R&D portfolio

DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY TREE

The path unlocks dependency by dependency.

“Unlocked” means the model’s readiness, year and infrastructure thresholds are met. It does not mean the technology is guaranteed to be feasible in reality.

V3 REFERENCE ROADMAP

Prototype → bootstrap → replicate → expand.

2026–2035

Demonstrate

Autonomous construction, lunar surface power, precision beaming, reusable launch, robotic ISRU and high-reliability orbital servicing.

2036–2050

Bootstrap

Lunar foundries, mass-driver experiments, orbital yards, closed-loop repair and early asteroid prospecting.

2051–2075

Replicate

Distributed factory nodes, high-throughput lunar/asteroid logistics, cislunar tether options and mature photonic links.

2076–2100

Move inward

Thermally capable collectors occupy closer solar orbits while traffic management and repair capacity scale.

2101–2126

Integrate

Planetary relays, industrial settlements, reserve power for large-scale planetary engineering research, and a mature swarm grid.

RESEARCH ANCHORS · CHECKED 2026

Anchor the speculative model in real enabling work.

These sources support individual technology branches—ISRU, orbital solar power, laser power beaming and tether technology. They do not imply that a Dyson swarm or Earth space elevator is currently buildable.

NASA — Space-Based Solar PowerIdentifies autonomous operations, efficient wireless power beaming, launch economics, and in-space assembly/maintenance as major capability gaps. NASA TechPort — High Efficiency Laser Power Beaming ReceiversReports that diffraction and low end-to-end efficiency remain central laser power-beaming challenges. NASA — In-Situ Resource UtilizationNASA is developing ways to obtain water, oxygen, propellants and construction materials from the Moon, Mars and asteroids. NASA TechPort — ISRU-Based Power on the MoonActive work is maturing autonomous processing of lunar regolith into silicon solar cells, aluminum conductors, oxygen and other products. NASA TechPort — TYMPODevelops tethered lunar power and communications over long distances; it is adjacent tether technology, not a lunar space elevator. NASA NTRS — Space Elevator Technology ConceptsHistoric NASA study work highlights ultra-high-strength tether materials and demonstrations as critical Earth-elevator challenges.